Future Trends in California's Food Supply

In honor of The Instigator Blog's "Blog About 5 Things Week", here are my five predictions for future trends in California's food supply:

1. Efficient Food Production
Conventional farming relies on fossil fuels, and that's neither economically sustainable nor energy efficient. As fossil fuel supplies dwindle and energy costs rise, agricultural producers will increasingly look to harness the sun - both from solar electricity and the solar energy stored in plants and organic manures - and use this energy efficiency to keep costs down and as a selling point to their consumers.

2. Increase in Organic Acreage
In increasing numbers, agricultural producers are transitioning their conventional lands in order to plant Organic acreage. In fact, over the past decade, sales of Organic products have shown an annual increase of at least 20%, the fastest growing sector of agriculture. Why? Because Organic is lucrative. This premium earned on Organics may be due to the demographics of the customer base, increases in demand, reduced costs for the producers, or something else, but the fact remains that Organic is far better for our environment than conventional farming practices. Environmental stewardship is an important selling point for many consumers, and as we increasingly incorporate externalities into our economy, respecting the environment is important for all agricultural producers.

3. Local Supply
A great example of increased reliance on local supply was in a recent article in the San Francisco Chronicle’s Food Section about the direct marketing of grass fed beef. Ranchers in Central California who have turned to grass fed ranching practices can't command a premium in the wholesale market, so in recent years have turned to farmers markets, home deliveries and FedEx shipments to sell their products directly to consumers.

4. Diversified Production
Rapid changes in California’s energy portfolio will drive up the costs of refrigeration and transportation of food products. As the profit margin traditionally bestowed upon large monoculture producers is narrowed, more producers will diversify their products. For example, farms like Fully Belly Farm and Happy Boy Farm will become increasingly important to consumers in the San Francisco Bay Area as they will be able to provide superior products and a similar price to the conventional products available in supermarkets - which up until this point had a market advantage due to their lower price.

5. Increased Awareness about Health Benefits of Responsible Foods
Michael Pollan's recent book, "The Omnivore's Dilemma" discusses America's fad diets and the nutritional benefits bestowed by traditionally- or sustainably-produced foods. The American diet of the future - there will be no "fad" about it - will focus on fewer processed foods, the balance of omega-3s to omega-6s, and the higher nutritional value of in-season, field-ripened fruits, to name a few.